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Oh, not again...

By Xin Zhiming and David Bartram | China Daily | Updated: 2011-08-12 11:25
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"China's stimulus package has kept unemployment under control but also had serious costs," says Derek Scissors, research fellow for economics at the Heritage Foundation's Asian Studies Center. "Another stimulus package risks a true financial crash."

The solution would be for China to transform its growth pattern so that it becomes less dependent on exports, Zhang of CASS says.

"If the 2008 crisis prompted China to clearly embark on the road of growth pattern transformation, the current crisis is having it accelerate the move," he said.

"I do think outside world events influence a possible impetus to join forces with the regional economies and promote more regional integration," says Jin at the London School of Economics.

"One thing people don't realize is that China's largest trade volume is still intra-regional. They trade more within Asia than with Europe and the US, so even though the debt crisis in these countries might affect China it could also be compensated for by stimulating trade with emerging markets. One thing that might happen is a promotion towards regional integration to shield the region from these crises."

Some see opportunity in the crises.

"The US debt crisis will continue to slow its economy and will further depress demand for Chinese exports," says Dale Jorgenson, Samuel W. Morris University Professor at Harvard University. "If the world goes into another recession (as a result of the current crisis), China should use the opportunity to dampen the level of economic activity and shift from exports toward domestic output. This should help to reduce inflationary pressures in China."

Scissors agrees. "China should see this danger as an opportunity. It is time to depend less on foreign markets and government-directed spending, and more on China's own consumers. The proper response to a global downturn is consumption-oriented restructuring."

Kelly Chung Dawson and Ariel Tung contributed to this story.

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