Smartphone shipments in the Chinese market fell 14.6 percent year-on-year to 16.79 million units in February 2026, according to the latest report released by the China Academy of Information and Communications Technology.

The decline comes amid sustained price surges in memory components and widespread handset price hikes, fueling industry expectations that 2026 could see smartphone shipments drop to their lowest level in more than a decade.

The market research company Counterpoint Research has forecast what it calls a potentially "most severe contraction" in the history of the smartphone market, with global shipments expected to fall below 1.1 billion units — a 12.4 percent drop that would mark the lowest level since 2013.

The US market research company IDC echoed the sentiment, projecting a 12.9 percent global decline to 1.1 billion units in 2026, the lowest since 2013. In China, shipments are expected to fall 10.5 percent year-on-year to 255 million units, a new low since 2012. The primary driver, IDC said, is AI industry expansion, which has led to supply shortages and sharp price hikes for memory chips, raising bill-of-materials costs.

Despite the headwinds, competitive handset brands are stepping up their game. Vivo, for instance, has unveiled its latest flagship series, the vivo X300 line — including the X300 Ultra and the newly announced X300 Super — which has blurred the boundaries between cameras and smartphones.

"We are introducing a new species of imaging device that combines the ideal focal lengths and high image quality of a camera with the portability and computational photography of a smartphone," Huang Tao, vice-president of product at Vivo, said.