The sharp contraction in air traffic between China and Japan has continued into April, following significant flight cancellations during the peak cherry blossom season in March, highlighting how strained bilateral relations have affected airline operations and tourism demand in Japan.

According to Chinese civil aviation data provider Flight Master, 2,691 flights — nearly half of all scheduled flights between the Chinese mainland and Japan — were canceled in March, while scheduled flights on 53 specific routes were entirely suspended.

The trend continues in April. Of the 2,614 flights scheduled this month on routes between the Chinese mainland and Japan, only 1,628 were operated as of Sunday, resulting in a cancellation rate of 37.7 percent.

The contraction follows Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's erroneous remarks on China's Taiwan region. Travel demand from the Chinese mainland has continued to weaken, and Chinese airlines have gradually reduced capacity on scheduled routes to Japan, particularly those tied to leisure travel.

Direct flights are now mostly limited to major hubs such as Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangzhou in Guangdong province.

According to flight tracking platforms and local media reports, Wuhan, the capital of Hubei province, currently has no direct passenger flights to Japan. A local resident wrote on social media platform Xiaohongshu, also known as RedNote, that she had to cancel a long-planned family trip to Japan in the absence of direct connectivity, because layovers in case of other flights were eight to 12 hours long.

Major Chinese airlines, including Air China, China Eastern and China Southern, have made their ticket policies more flexible to cushion the impact of flight disruptions. Passengers holding tickets for Japan until Oct 24 can now rebook or cancel free of charge. This is an extension of an earlier policy that covered departures until late March.

Zoey Wang, director of global infrastructure ratings at Fitch Ratings, said, "The latest round of cancellations appears to be focused mainly on tourism routes, particularly those linking China's lower-tier cities with Japan's major leisure destinations."

While core China-Japan business routes remain relatively stable, Wang warned that sustained capacity cuts would increase travel costs and could eventually hinder broader business and cultural exchanges.

Airlines said their operational China-Japan flight routes are struggling to survive. According to Flight Master, the passenger load factor — the share of available seats filled on a flight — has dropped to between 40 and 48 percent, well below the industry's typical break-even level of around 70 percent, making many routes commercially unviable.

This aviation downturn mirrors a sharp decline in broader tourism. Data from the Japan National Tourism Organization shows that the country received 291,600 visitors from the Chinese mainland in March, down 55.9 percent compared with the same period last year, marking a decline for the fourth consecutive month.

Tourism spending has also dropped significantly. Preliminary data from the Japan Tourism Agency shows that travelers from the Chinese mainland spent 271.5 billion yen ($1.7 billion) in Japan during the January-March period, roughly half the figure recorded a year earlier.

Japan's retail sector has taken a direct hit. February duty-free sales at Japanese department stores dropped 15.5 percent to 45.3 billion yen, marking a decline for the fourth consecutive month, according to the Japan Department Stores Association. The group largely attributed this decline to a 40 percent plunge in sales to Chinese tourists, alongside a 50 percent drop in their foot traffic.

The downward trend is expected to continue during China's five-day Labor Day holiday starting on May 1. Data from Flight Master shows that as of Monday, about one-third of the 644 scheduled flights on China-Japan routes during the holiday period had already been canceled.

Wang, from Fitch Ratings, said the China-Japan flight sector could enter a prolonged period of reduced capacity if bilateral ties do not improve, as airlines will be compelled to redeploy aircraft to stronger outbound markets, such as Seoul in South Korea, Bangkok in Thailand, and Singapore.

"In the next six to 12 months, a meaningful rebound in China-Japan routes appears unlikely," she said, adding that airlines may only restore capacity gradually unless diplomatic relations improve and travel demand recovers.