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ADB: China's economy to grow 10% in 2008

(Xinhua)
Updated: 2008-04-02 15:29

China's economic growth will moderate to about 10 percent this year and 9.8 percent in 2009, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) said in a report on Wednesday.

The bank said it made the forecast on the back of "an expected tighter domestic monetary policy and weaker external demand".

Related readings:  World Bank cuts 2008 China growth forecast to 9.4%  China to deal with global slowdown  Declining export growth to slow China's 2008 GDP increase  Stand against inflation

China's national economy expanded 11.4 percent in 2007 - the highest rise in 13 years.

The ADB also warned that rising food prices would stoke inflation pressure in the economy in its annual outlook report released on Wednesday.

It said the country's inflation rate was expected to average 5.5 percent in 2008 and remain around 5 percent in 2009, up from 4.8 percent in 2007.

"Aggressive monetary tightening measures, weak global economic prospects, and tighter lending policies will bring growth down to its potential levels," Ifzal Ali, chief economist of ADB said in the report.

Previously, ADB put its forecast for China's GDP growth in 2008 at 10.8 percent in September last year, while the inflation rate was predicted to be under 4 percent, at about 3.8 percent, for the year.

The Manila-based bank also said China's export growth may slow to 19 percent this year and further slow to 18 percent in 2008, down from 26 percent in 2007, because of weaker global demand and the country's export rebate reforms.

The country's imports, however, were expected to grow at 20 percent in 2008 and 2009 with the appreciation of the Chinese currency, lower import tariffs along with the implementation of other pro-import policies, it said.

The bank said China was expected to allow a faster appreciation of the yuan against the US dollar faced with large amount of trade surplus and surging capital inflows, which may exacerbate excess liquidity.

It said the country would need to address three major imbalances in the economy to keep the economy on a high-growth path.

China "needs to boost domestic consumption, address the energy and environmental concerns and bridge rising income inequality between rural and urban areas," said Ali.

ADB's report came a day after the World Bank revised its 2008 China growth forecast to a lower 9.4 percent, warning the country of rising inflation and weaker exports.

The Chinese government said in March it aimed to maintain the country's economic growth at eight percent this year, while the inflation target was fixed at 4.8 percent.

The report said developing Asian economies would register "solid growth" in 2008, despite a slowdown in major industrial economies, surging food and fuel prices and the credit crisis which began in the United States.

It said developing Asian economies would expand 7.6 percent in 2008 and 7.8 percent in 2009, against an average 8.7 percent in 2007, the highest growth in almost two decades.

However, the bank also warned Asian countries of the risk of an inflation spiral in Asia, as the World Bank did a day earlier in its report.

It said inflation in the region was expect to spike in 2008 and could hit a decade-long regional high, and urged countries to tackle the problem.

"Inflation is expected to rise to 5.1 percent in 2008 and gradually slide to 4.6 percent in 2009."