Hong Kong's opposition camp: time to step back?
Updated: 2014-09-26 08:20
By Tim Collard(HK Edition)
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There is a French phrase - "reculer pour mieux sauter". It means to take a step back to ready oneself for a further jump forward. Although there has been something of a gap in the confrontation building throughout the summer over the arrangements for the 2017 Chief Executive election, the issue of student boycotts and the continuing threat of "Occupy Central" activities make it clear that the issues are not going to be quietly forgotten as the central government and the Hong Kong establishment would no doubt wish.
However, when one has something to say, there are more and less effective ways of saying it.
It has become uncomfortably clear the forces of opposition to the central government's plans were wrong-footed in the summer: The issue of the white paper provoked a rapid build-up of anger on the streets which had largely run out of steam by the time the actual announcement emerged at the end of August, leaving the prospects for the "Occupy Central" campaign less promising than they looked in July.
In this, the central government showed a good grasp of tactics, luring the opposition into a failure of timing. The current situation is that the government has a clear position, which has attracted acceptance among moderate Hongkongers, while the opposition is in some disarray regarding both methods and objectives.
A successful campaign to reject proposals of the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress (NPCSC) risks a simple reversion to the 2012 election process, and a further five-year delay in the implementation of universal suffrage.
A display of intransigence, for example by maintaining the confrontational approach of boycotts and occupation, is partly explained by the wish to save face by not being seen to back down; it also suggests a lack of capacity to respond to changed circumstances, the absence of a plan B.
The plan B will not emerge immediately - it will take some thought. This means a break from open confrontation. A boycott of classes need not cause much trouble or provoke too much in the way of a reaction: Any attempt at implementing the full "Occupy Central" plan must ensure it isn't counter-productive and doesn't lead activists to cling intractably to ultimately indefensible positions.
It is never good to pursue tactics for which one's opponents are well prepared. This will enable the opponent to seize control of the battleground.
If "Occupy Central" is still the preferred modus operandi, it should be conducted so as to avoid being sufficiently disruptive to invite a crushing, pre-planned response. Ill-thought-out actions damage both the movement itself and the levels of sympathy it attracts.
However, these are questions of tactics; and tactics ought always to be subordinate to strategy. What is the opposition trying to achieve? It should now be clear that the available options are the proposed procedure under universal suffrage and the previous procedure without it. The former is surely preferable, even though it may be imperfect: What system isn't? The aim of the "pan-democrat" camp should therefore be to extend democratic freedom and popular influence as far as it can within the existing parameters. Yes, candidates for the position of Chief Executive will have to have Beijing's approval to stand for election - but they will also have to earn the approval of Hong Kong people to achieve it.
It will not do to simply regard the NPCSC's decision as a defeat to which the only response can be desperate last-ditch resistance. It should be regarded as the basis for considered thought regarding the next steps.
First, make sure the next steps have the broadest possible support base. Outright rejection of current proposals will not only fail to impress Beijing - it will also fail to impress the moderate majority of Hongkongers. Find a few issues on which there is genuine strong concern, and campaign on those issues, ensuring that no candidate for Chief Executive will be able to afford to ignore these issues when standing for election. There are plenty of such issues which do not transcend the boundaries of "One Country, Two Systems".
Finally, choose your battleground and your timing carefully. Nothing will be achieved by a great outburst of passion which goes off at half-cock and then disappears in a puff of smoke, requiring yet another tactical and strategic rethink.
Serious political campaigning may well require sacrifices - make sure these sacrifices are for an identifiable cause and an achievable aim. Don't waste enthusiasm and endanger your own and Hong Kong's future for an impossible dream.
The author is a former UK diplomat specializing in China. He spent nine years as an analyst in Beijing. He now works as a freelance writer and commentator.
(HK Edition 09/26/2014 page10)