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Financial Shocks, De-Leveraging and China’s Macroeconomic Fluctuations: Features and Policy Options -- An Analysis Based on Default Costs and Anticipated Shocks (Special Issue, No.77, 2019)
( drc ) 2019-12-09
By Wang Junli, Institute of Public Administration and Human Resources, DRC
Research Report, Special Issue, No.77, 2019 (Total 1705)
2019-10-11
Abstract: As one of the major tasks of China’s supply-side structural reform, de-leveraging in a steady and orderly manner is the key to preventing and solving financial risks. And macro-economic data show that China’s macro-economic fluctuations bear the features of both boom and depression during the course of de-leveraging. In this context, this paper tries to illustrate China’s macro-economic fluctuations against the background of deleveraging from the perspective of default costs and anticipated shocks. First, it clarifies the important role that default costs play in the function of financial accelerator mechanism. Second, it vitalizes the parameters of default costs in debt contracts and introduces financial shocks and reviews the macro-economic fluctuations driven by the impact of anticipated default costs in cases of both anticipated realization and reverse from forecasted shocks. Third, it has been proved that in recent years China’s macro-economic reality is basically in consistent with the model simulation results, providing a theoretical explanation for reviewing China’s de-leveraging efforts from the perspective of enterprises default and forecast results. The government needs to take into account the shocks that enterprises default might induce and the financial institutions’ forecasts during the implementation of current de-leveraging policies.
Key words: default costs, leverage, financial shocks, forecasted shocks
