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India starts marathon vote, weak coalition seen
(Agendcies)
Updated: 2009-04-17 10:33 VARANASI, India -- From the snowbound Chinese border to holy Ganges cities, tens of millions of Indians began voting on Thursday in a month-long election with signs that an unstable coalition may emerge in the middle of an economic slowdown.
The ruling Congress party-led coalition appears to lead against an alliance headed by the Hindu-nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), but both may need the support of a host of smaller and unpredictable regional parties to win office.
India's Election Commission estimated Thursday's preliminary voter turnout at 58-62 percent. The main fear among investors is that the country's election, involving 714 million voters and hundreds of parties, will lead to the rise of a "Third Front" government. "The signs are the election will lead to a short-lived arrangement," said V. Ravichandar, managing director of Feedback Consulting, which advises multinationals in India. "It will be like Italy, something happens every year or year-and-a-half." The uncertainty comes as a once-booming India reels from a crunch that has cost millions of jobs. It has ignited fears of political limbo just as India balances needs to help millions of poor with worries over its biggest fiscal gap in two decades. The government deployed hundreds of thousands of police to protect more than 140 million people who could vote on Thursday in polls that covered some of India's poorest states. The outcome of the five-stage election will be known on May 16. India's elections are notoriously hard to predict and polls have been wrong in the past. Exit polls are banned. A clear win by either of the two main parties could see a rally on India's markets, but the emergence of a weak coalition of regional and communist parties could see stocks fall by as much as 30 percent, market watchers say. |
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