Asia-Pacific
Obama advised to revise troop pullback dates
By Tan Yingzi (China Daily)
Updated: 2010-03-31 08:45
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WASHINGTON - The Obama administration should reconsider its troop withdrawal schedule if the United States wants to ensure a successful transition to stability in Iraq, US experts said. This comes in the backdrop of the recent disputed election results and the likely delayed formation of a new government there.
On the other hand, if Washington was to tinker with its drawdown schedule and maintain troops in Iraq, the president and his party may see some reversals in the mid-term elections in November at home, they said.
Last week's completed count in Iraq's elections gave former Prime Minister Ayad Allawi's Iraqiya coalition a two-seat win (91-89) over current Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki's State of Law coalition.
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In 2005's elections, when the US was the occupying power and Iraqis were wholly dependent on Washington, it took five months to form a government. And this time, it may take even longer as the influence of the United States in Iraq is far less than before with declining troop strength and economic aid.
It is estimated that the government-formation process will likely extend to August, and President Obama has committed to halve the American forces in Iraq to just 50,000 troops by that time. According to the terms of the Status of Forces Agreement negotiated in 2008, all American troops will be out of Iraq by the end of 2011.
Meghan O'Sullivan, the Jeane Kirkpatrick Professor of International Affairs at Harvard University's Kennedy School, and the former deputy national security adviser on Iraq for President Bush, said that Washington should rethink pulling back all combat troops in August, when there will still be uncertainty about the newly formed government.
"If I were advising the administration, I would say it's certainly a good vision to have, but I would try to maintain some flexibility given the current political uncertainties, and given the quite serious issues that may arise in the months ahead," she said in an interview conducted by the Council of Foreign Relations on Monday.
And a potentially far more destabilizing situation for Iraq would be an international showdown with Iran, she cautioned. "One of the reasons Iraq might find itself in a very difficult situation over the next six months has nothing to do with Iraq; it has everything to do with Iran," she said.
"An international confrontation with Iran is at the very top of my list of things that could put Iraq off the current positive trajectory it is on."
James Phillips, Senior Research Fellow for Middle Eastern Affairs at the Heritage Foundation, suggested that the United States should slow the timetable for troop draw-downs, maintain adequate US troops in sensitive and insecure areas, and start thinking about negotiating with the new Iraqi government to postpone the deadline for a final troop withdrawal if Washington wants to avoid a renewed civil war after the disputed election results.
"Iraq's elected leaders must resolve Iraq's problems, but in order to do so, they require substantial, continued support from the US," he said.
"No expert believes that the Iraqi army and police will be ready to stand on their own by the end of 2011 Substantial US air support, logistics, intelligence, reconnaissance, communications, training, and advisory support will still be required long after that date."
The challenge for the US now lies in not losing the gains from the election in the process of government formation, said Kenneth Pollack, Senior Fellow in Foreign Policy Studies and the Director of the Saban Center for Middle East Policy at the Brookings Institution.
